“Black Swans” Zoom-Out

However strong our conviction, any perspective we hold may be wrong. Hold it under the light of refutability.

Home of the black swan

A little over 3 miles from me as I write is the charming town of Dawlish, located in South Devon on the south west coast of England. Well known for the scenic train line that separates the sea from the town.

Dawlish is also well known for something else, as proudly displayed on road signs and highlighted by the town council: “Dawlish – home of the black swan”.

Interestingly, and particularly to a Zoomologist, the significance of black swans goes far beyond being a local tourist attraction. Here’s why.

What the explorers found

European explorers of the late 17th century embarked on expeditions to explore distant lands. One such explorer was Willem de Vlamingh, who led a Dutch expedition along the uncharted western coast of Australia in 1697.

What he discovered came as a great surprise to the crew, and to European society more widely when the news was relayed back. It would also play a part in advancing philosophical reasoning and the scientific method!

Before this moment, Europeans believed, without question, that all swans were white. Yet here before the crew, gracefully gliding across the surface of a river, were black swans!

You can imagine the surprise and how this became a societal talking point. But how did it play a part in philosophical reasoning and the scientific method?

Verifiability

Science once largely operated on the idea of verifiability, where the acceptance of a scientific theory was based on repeatable observations. The more observations that matched the theory, the more this confirmed the theory was correct. In this way, a scientific theory came to be proven.

David Hume, a philosopher and historian, in the 18th century, highlighted the limitations of drawing universal conclusions from a set of observations (known as the problem of induction). The black swan became the classic example.

Refutability

Karl Popper, one of the 20th century’s most influential philosophers of science, was also not satisfied with this approach. The alternative to verifiability espoused by Popper and others is that of refutability. This proposes that any scientific theory must be refutable. If it cannot possibly be refuted, then it should not stand as a scientific theory.

Scientific theories should therefore be formulated in such a way that leaves them open to being falsified through rigorous empirical testing, and not simply through a finite set of observations. For example, no matter how many white swans could be observed, this should not lead to an absolute proof that all swans are white.

Your perspectives

A human perspective has this in common with a scientific theory. A perspective is built up through one or more observations. The more observations that appear to confirm this perspective, the more weight and certainty are given to that perspective.

The verifiability of a perspective

As Hume and Popper inspire us to consider, we should hold our perspectives under the light of refutability.

The refutability of a perspective

To be open to the fact that any perspective we hold may indeed be wrong, no matter how strong our conviction is that it is true.

It encourages us to look for ways in which we can test our perspective in a way that could show it to be false.

To be actively open to new evidence that would shift our perspectives. (This is counter to confirmation bias.)

Back to Dawlish

A couple of hundred years after the discovery of black swans by Europeans, a local Dawlish resident, Nicholas Way, led an initiative to import black swans from Western Australia and give them a home in the local waterways, most prominently Dawlish Water. Hence, arriving in the town, visitors are welcomed with the sign “Home of the black swan” and, of course, the sight of black swans gracefully gliding across the surface of the river.

I wonder if there is a town in a neighbouring galaxy that welcomes visitors with the sign: “Home of the purple swan”?

The next time we are holding a perspective which is not serving us or others well, let’s remind ourselves of black swans. Or indeed, purple swans.

For a companion idea, see Strong Opinions, Weakly Held.